Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) regional office in Bhubaneswar has predicted the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal after May 6. According to the IMD, cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6, 2023, which could result in a low-pressure area forming over the same region within 48 hours.
However, the IMD has not yet determined whether the low-pressure area will turn into a cyclonic storm. Meanwhile, international meteorologist Jason Nicholls has predicted that the system may intensify into a cyclone and affect areas between eastern India and Myanmar.
Weather experts have suggested that a more precise prediction regarding the path and intensity of the system can be made after the low-pressure area forms. The US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have predicted the formation of a cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal, which will be named ‘Mocha’ if it materializes. The weather forecast model of Windy has estimated that Cyclone Mocha may form by May 11.
Jason Nichols has also estimated the possibility of a storm in the second week of May, as a low-pressure area may develop over the South Bay of Bengal by the end of this week or early next week. He has revealed that there is a high probability that the low-pressure area will take the form of a cyclonic storm, which could affect areas from east India to Bangladesh and Myanmar. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the changes in the low pressure.